Glenn Reynolds points us to a Tom Maguire post that also shreads the Krugman NYT column on Social Security reform. Excerpts:
Now, here comes Krugman's first misrepresentation:
In fact, the actuary said, "careful research reflecting actual work histories for workers by race indicate that the nonwhite population actually enjoys the same or better expected rates of return from Social Security" as whites.
Really? That was the actuary summarizing a backward looking study, since the excerpt continues with an admonition to "See Duggan, et. al., "The Returns Paid to Early Social Security Cohorts," Contemporary Policy Issues, (October), pp. 1-13." Here is a good summary of the discussion prepared by the AARP (which also mentions Duggan). The gist - once the disability component is factored in, blacks have done roughly as well as whites with Social Security.
But the privatizers aren't talking about changing the disability part of the plan, now are they? In fact, as the Times reported, it is far from clear how disability might be changed, if at all, if personal accounts are adopted. So if we limit ourselves to what the President was actually talking about, which was the Social Security retirement plan, the lower life expectancy of blacks reduces their return.
…
Yes, the life-expectancy at birth is not useful. However, the life-expectancy at age 65 is also misleading, since it overlooks the many folks who pay taxes for a lifetime and then die before retirement. The reduced life expectancy of black males at age 20 (who have survived the childhood issues and can now look forward to a lifetime of Social Security taxes) is also relevant - at age 20, the gap relative to white males is about 5 years. [MORE: Jim Glass is, as usual, quite insightful on this point. Clearly, I let Krugman off easy on this.]
Second, the formula determining Social Security benefits is progressive: it provides more benefits, as a percentage of earnings, to low-income workers than to high-income workers. Since African-Americans are paid much less, on average, than whites, this works to their advantage.
Recent Comments