John Fund has a column about unhappy conservatives, but says that does not mean victory for Democrats. Excerpt:
Some polls show public disapproval of the GOP among conservatives reaching dangerously high levels. A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that only 66% of Republicans now approve of President Bush's performance. A new Associated Press/Public Affairs poll found 45% of self-identified conservatives disapprove of Mr. Bush's job as president, and 65% disapprove of the GOP Congress. The disapproval numbers are probably exaggerated because of an oversampling of Democrats, but even if somewhat lower, the numbers are still toxic.
"[What's] happening is a breakdown of the coalition that elected and re-elected the president," says pollster John Zogby. He told the Washington Times that in his surveys he found Mr. Bush pulling in less than 45% support among people invested in the stock market, Nascar fans and gun owners. His standing among born-again Christians was just over 50%.
Despite such numbers, analysts caution that a GOP wipeout in November is unlikely. Polls of generic support for the major parties are notoriously unreliable as a predictor.. In 1996, Democrats enjoyed a 14-point advantage over Republicans in congressional races only two months before the election. In the end, they gained only nine seats, and that was before sophisticated gerrymandering dramatically shrank the number of competitive districts and after Republicans won some heavily Democratic districts in 1994. Jonathan Last, a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer, also reminds us that "Democrats have shown time and again that they can blow a lead like nobody's business."
The other problem Democrats still face is that the public thinks almost as badly about them as they do the Republicans. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll finds just 33% have a positive view of the Democratic Party, with 39% having a negative view. Republican numbers are worse, but just barely: 35% positive, 43% negative. Just after the 2004 elections, Democrats had a 44% favorable rating while Republicans had a 46% rating, numbers that came close to matching that year's election results. Even Howard Dean, Mr. Mehlman's Democratic counterpart, admits that his party has to "earn the public approval of our right to govern again."
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